At the time of writing this, I am somewhere over the Atlantic, roughly two-hours into a thirteen-hour flight to Turkey. So I thought what better way to pass the time than to take a deeper dive into a question I raised on TikTok earlier today: what exactly is going on with Donald Trump’s sudden disappearance from public view, and why did JD Vance say that?
As of now, Trump has not been seen in a verifiable, on-camera way since August 26, 2025, when he appeared at a Cabinet meeting. In the days since, the White House has pushed out pre-taped videos, still photographs (the dates of their origin still in question), and a flood of Truth Social posts — but no live appearances.
For most people, that silence has sparked a wave of questions. Some wonder if he has died, others speculate about surgeries… I even came across one theory that he had been sent to hide out in Israel with Jeffrey Epstein (that one was mine. It sounded cinematic, what can I say.)
But as tempting as it is to get caught up in rumor, it’s more useful to slow down, line up the facts we can actually verify, and see if any patterns emerge. Even if Trump reappears 10 minutes from now, the choreography around J.D. Vance over the past two weeks tells us something more unsettling.
The Timeline That Stands Out
On August 24, just two days before Trump’s last verified appearance, J.D. Vance told major outlets that Russia had made “significant concessions” in Ukraine talks. That is the sort of line you would normally expect from the President or Secretary of State.
On August 26, Trump appeared at the Cabinet meeting. His last substantiate whereabouts.
On August 28, Vance told USA Today that he was “ready to assume the presidency if, God forbid, tragedy strikes.” [okay… weirdo.] That is not the kind of statement vice presidents usually make out loud unless the goal is to perhaps ‘soft launch’ the idea.
By Labor Day weekend, as speculation was building, the only images of Trump came in the form of golf photographs, many of which were contested as being recycled. His Truth Social account, meanwhile, pushed out more than forty posts in a matter of hours, including AI-generated graphics and text that often did not read like his usual voice.
Each of these incidents might be brushed off individually. Together though, they reveal a pattern: Vance was presented as a statesman on August 24, positioned as a natural successor on August 28, and put forward as the steady presence while Trump remained off stage.
First, Let’s Take A Deep Breath
Before we go down this rabbit hole, it’s worth pausing on the most realistic explanation: Trump may simply have needed some sort surgery; given his declining health, that’s not exactly super far-fetched. He has been photographed with bruised hands and swollen ankles, and doctors diagnosed him with chronic venous insufficiency earlier this year. That condition can require medical intervention.
But even if surgery explains the absence, the way it is being handled is telling. If the sole priority had been to calm the public, the White House could have arranged a quick, uncut appearance to quiet speculation. Instead, they leaned on curated stills, pre-taped clips, and a flood of text. That choice points to a different set of priorities — not transparency, but narrative control.
The Thiel–Vance Project
This brings us to the larger story, and let me be the first to warn you; it’s a doozy. J.D. Vance’s rise was never organic. It has been carefully built over more than a decade, with Peter Thiel standing behind him from the very beginning. Their relationship began in 2011, when Thiel gave a lecture at Yale Law School and Vance was still a student.
(It’s worth noting that in all of my research I was not able to find one single photo of JD Vance and Peter Thiel together, in the same room.)
That moment sparked a connection that would shape Vance’s career. He went on to work at Mithril Capital, one of Thiel’s firms, before launching Narya Capital back in Ohio with seed money from Thiel, Marc Andreessen, and Eric Schmidt. On paper, it was a Midwestern bootstrap story. In practice, it was Silicon Valley writing the check.
By 2022, the project was fully in the open. Thiel poured $15 million into Vance’s Senate campaign, turning a failing candidacy into a victory. That was not just about winning Ohio; it was proof that Thiel could put his own man into office. Two years later, when Trump was weighing running mates, the same donor network (Thiel, Elon Musk, David Sacks) threw its weight behind Vance. Musk even dangled the idea of bankrolling a third-party movement if the GOP refused to take their priorities seriously. At the time it sounded like bluster, but it was really leverage. The message was clear: either absorb our candidate or risk us peeling off with the money and building something outside the party. Not long after, Trump chose Vance. The threat worked exactly as intended.
Once inside the White House, Vance became more than a vice president. He became the symbol of a new donor class. He chaired Republican fundraising, headlined galas where seats went for six figures, and projected the image of a young, relatable family man; vacationing monthly, keeping himself visible as both accessible and inevitable.
At the same time, he positioned himself as the political face of crypto, championing deregulation in language that mirrored the Winklevoss twins and other backers who had funded his Rockbridge Network. That network, launched in 2019 with Thiel’s support, openly marketed itself as a “government in waiting.” Its purpose was clear: fund the think tanks, media platforms, and infrastructure to carry out the long game.
This fits neatly into Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s sweeping plan to reshape the federal government. Vance did not stay on the sidelines; he wrote the foreword to Dawn’s Early Light, the companion text to Heritage’s 900-page “Mandate for Leadership.” He positioned himself directly inside the ideological superstructure designed to dismantle the administrative state and replace it with loyalists. Trump could roar about draining the swamp, but Vance and his backers were building the machinery to do it.
Seen this way, his sudden prominence over the past two weeks is not coincidence. It is culmination. Thiel has always favored a two-step strategy: unleash chaos to weaken institutions, then install someone disciplined enough to consolidate control. Trump was the chaos. Vance is the consolidation. Musk’s third-party bluff was the reminder that Silicon Valley had the money to force this outcome. And now that Vance is in place, they no longer need the bluff. They already have their operator sitting one heartbeat away from the presidency.
Why This Isn’t Hope
This is why I can’t take Trump’s disappearance as some kind of #HopeCore moment. Hope suggests a break in the storm, the chaos finally giving way to calm. But the past two weeks suggest something more frigid. Trump may come back Tuesday (given Monday is Labor Day), but the choreography has already revealed the future that’s been in the works for years.
Trump’s role was to normalize crisis politics, now Vance’s role is to make that permanent — to turn it into policy, infrastructure, and long-term power. The sequel is not a reprieve. It is consolidation. And it may prove sharper, more calculating, and ultimately more dangerous than the original.
Main Takeaway
Whether Trump reappears tomorrow on a golf course or not at all, the past two weeks have already done their work. They have shown us what the future is supposed to look like. The White House chose narrative control over transparency. Vance was put forward as a statesman and a successor. The donor class signaled its preference for stability and predictability, not chaos. None of that is rumor; all of it is documented.
It is tempting to look at Trump’s absence and feel relief, as though history has just resolved itself. But history rarely offers relief on cue. What it tends to offer is a trade: the noisy battering ram is removed, and in his place comes the quieter operator who turns atmosphere into architecture. That is the real story here. Trump was chaos. Vance is consolidation. And in many ways, consolidation is the more dangerous phase, because it doesn’t announce itself with fireworks. It creeps in quietly, through contracts, appointments, regulations, and funding streams.
The lesson of the past two weeks isn’t about whether Trump is alive, dead, or in recovery. The lesson is about how power moves when attention is distracted. What looks like a disappearance may in fact be a handoff. And if we are not paying attention, we may find that the sequel has already begun.
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