Playback speed

Share post at current time

Share from 0:00

0:00

The Day Larry Ellison Lost and Won: What Really Happened at Warner Bros.

Dec 07, 2025

If you’ve been anywhere near Hollywood this last week, you know the vibe. Netflix buying Warner Bros. is the only thing anyone’s talking about. Emergency podcasts. Group chats on fire. Think pieces about what this means for theatrical, for HBO, for everything.

Look, I get it. Netflix acquiring one of the oldest studios in Hollywood is huge. But here’s what I can’t stop thinking about: while everyone’s focused on what Netflix is buying, nobody’s paying attention to what they’re not buying. And who’s positioned to pick up those pieces.

Because on December 4th, the day before Netflix’s big win got announced, one of my Google alerts went off. Larry Ellison’s net worth had just surged $5.2 billion in a single day, jumping him from third-richest person in the world to second. (What, you don’t have a Larry Ellison Google alert?) One day before he publicly lost Warner Bros., the man got $5.2 billion richer.

That bothered me. So I started pulling threads.

December 1st

The Oracle rally traced back to December 1st. That’s when Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating on the stock, calling it “an attractive entry point given recent weakness.” Except Oracle had been sluggish for months. No earnings surprise that week, no major contracts, nothing that would make a bank suddenly remind everyone Oracle’s a buy.

And yet Deutsche Bank picked December 1st. The exact day final bids were due in the Warner Bros. Discovery auction. Analyst upgrades typically take 3-4 trading days to translate into wealth gains for major shareholders, which means a December 1st call would predictably land on Ellison’s net worth by December 4th.

One day before he was announced as the loser.

That timing feels coordinated. It doesn’t help the bid they’ve already submitted, sure. But it’s really helpful if you’re about to publicly lose and need to look like you’re winning at something else. Even more helpful if you need that kind of financial backing for a purchase you actually want to make.

The Pinnacle Pattern

I watched the Paramount-Skydance merger closely in 2024. Larry Ellison’s been on my radar for a while, and when his son was acquiring Paramount, I wanted to understand exactly how they structured it. So I made a spreadsheet of all their special holding vehicles. Yes, I’m that person.

I tracked every SPV they used because if you want to understand how billionaires move, you don’t watch what they say. You watch what they file. Three entities stood out: Pinnacle Media Ventures I, II, and III. All filed the same day, June 28, 2024. Nine days later, the Paramount-Skydance deal was announced. Pinnacle Media Ventures is the umbrella structure Larry Ellison creates, with LLCs beneath them for David’s direct investments.

So I figured: if the Ellisons were planning to acquire Warner Bros., they’d probably use the same structure. These people aren’t exactly creative with naming conventions. I pulled up the Delaware corporate database, typed in “Pinnacle Media Ventures,” and sorted by filing date.

And what do you know. There seems to have been a Pinnacle Media Ventures IV filed December 1, 2025. Same day final bids were due. Same day Deutsche Bank upgraded Oracle.

Now that’s interesting, because those two things suggest opposite conclusions. Filing a new acquisition entity suggests confidence. You don’t create that infrastructure unless you’re expecting to use it. But if they already knew they were losing Warner Bros., why file it at all? Unless Pinnacle Media Ventures IV isn’t for Warner Bros. Unless it’s for something else.

And here’s what made me pause: there’s only one of them. For Paramount, they needed three. If they were buying all of Warner Bros. Discovery, wouldn’t they need a similar structure? But if they were only planning to buy one piece... maybe one holding company is all you need.

What Netflix Isn’t Buying

That question made me look at what Netflix is actually acquiring, and more importantly, what they’re not. The TL;DR is that Netflix isn’t buying the cable networks. The deal structure requires Warner Bros. Discovery to spin off CNN, TNT, TBS, and the Discovery networks into a separate company called Discovery Global before Netflix can close. The cable networks become their own publicly traded entity, available for someone else to acquire.

So if the Ellisons’ real target is CNN... why didn’t they just wait? The original plan was for WBD to spin off Discovery Global in April 2026. Why force an early auction with an unsolicited bid in October? Why go through an aggressive bidding war you’re going to lose?

Unless April 2026 is too late. Too late for what, you ask? Well, 2026 happens to be one of the most consequential election years we’ve had in a while (well, at least since 2024). Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina primaries hit as early as March 3rd. The rest of the country follows. Every House seat, a third of the Senate, and by the end of spring… the primary narrative is set. The media has already decided which candidates are viable, which get buried, which stories get oxygen.

If Discovery Global doesn’t spin off until April, whoever buys CNN gets it after the primaries are effectively decided. Too late to shape anything that matters. But if someone could accelerate that timeline to Q1? CNN would change hands before March.

Why Force the Auction Early?

Remember, Warner Bros. Discovery wasn’t supposed to be sold this year. The plan was for WBD to complete its own spinoff of Discovery Global in April 2026, separating the cable networks on their own timeline. Then in October, David Ellison made an unsolicited bid for the entire company, forcing WBD into a formal auction process months ahead of schedule.

Paramount kept bidding aggressively even as they were being shot down, time and time again. Which is notably not a very “Ellison” thing to do. The Ellisons don’t throw good money after bad. They don’t stay in losing fights just for the optics. So why would you force a company into an early auction and then lose?

Maybe losing was the point.

Because here’s what the Netflix deal accomplishes: it forces Discovery Global to spin off. The same separation that was going to happen anyway, but now under regulatory scrutiny, with deal pressure, and potentially making the spun off network available sooner. If Paramount’s hostile posturing creates enough uncertainty around Netflix’s deal, the fastest way to resolve it might be to accelerate the spinoff and let Ellison take the cable networks cleanly.

Ellison didn’t lose the Warner Bros. auction. He lost the part he wasn’t trying to win.

November 7th

Five days before the formal auction even began, David Zaslav modified his employment agreement. Here’s why that matters.

The original WBD plan from June 2025 was to spin off the studios and HBO Max as an independent company called Warner Bros., with Zaslav as CEO. Discovery Global, the cable networks, would remain as the continuing entity. That separation was expected to complete in April 2026.

But on November 7th, Zaslav amended his contract to address a different scenario: a “reverse spinoff,” where Discovery Global gets spun off instead and the studios remain as the continuing entity, available to be acquired by a third party. That’s exactly the structure Netflix’s winning bid requires.

Zaslav wrote contract language for a deal structure that hadn’t been proposed yet. Five days before Netflix had even submitted a binding bid. Either that’s extraordinary foresight, or the structure was already decided.

The Hostile Bid

Paramount is now threatening a hostile bid. Reports say Ellison is “livid” and legal challenges are being prepared. But what is Paramount actually hostile toward at this point? Netflix is buying the studios. The cable networks are spinning off regardless.

Unless the hostile posturing isn’t about getting Warner Bros. back. Unless it’s leverage to accelerate the Discovery Global timeline from April to Q1, to make sure CNN changes hands before the March primaries instead of after. The threat of a hostile bid creates urgency. It creates regulatory complications. It creates pressure to resolve the structure quickly, which means accelerating the spinoff.

And if that spinoff happens in Q1, whoever acquires CNN gets it before the 2026 primary season begins in earnest. Before the narrative is set. Before the race is decided.

December 9th

Monday is December 9th. Oracle announces earnings. I’ll be watching for any news about the Discovery Global timeline, for Paramount suddenly reaching an “understanding” with Netflix or WBD, for Pinnacle Media Ventures IV showing up in any filing related to CNN or Discovery Global.

Everyone’s writing about Netflix’s big bet on Hollywood. But I fear the real story is what’s happening to CNN while nobody’s paying attention.

If you found this helpful, check out my other reporting on this story:

Part 4: Who TF Am I Working For? The Hollywood Takeover

where I trace the full web of Ellison’s media empire and what it means for the future of American news.

Sources Cited